Audited financials from the Washington State Convention Center Public Facilities District. The numbers behind the word "fragile."
Adjust the sliders to see how hotel market conditions and convention activity affect lodging tax revenue, bond coverage, and the operating trajectory. All figures estimated from public disclosures.
Model assumptions: cash operating costs $75M/year (audited 2024, excludes $52.9M depreciation); convention activity index 100 = 2024 baseline (~$51.5M convention revenue: $7.3M booking fees + $44.3M attendance-driven F&B and AV services); attendance revenue scales with hotel occupancy relative to 2024 baseline (occ ÷ 68%) — higher occupancy means more people in the building; Bellevue diversion reduces Seattle lodging tax only (attendees still eat and spend at SCC regardless of where they slept); bond debt service ~$90M/year ($75M interest + ~$15M principal on $1.9B outstanding); reserves $25M (CEO LeMaster, Feb 2026). Net cash position = convention revenue + lodging tax − cash ops − debt service; at 2024 baseline (23,000 city-wide rooms) this is approximately −$6M/year, consistent with the CEO's description of reserves as stable. Room count: 2024 actual Seattle lodging tax ($93.5M) implies ~$1.34B in taxable hotel revenue (÷ 7% rate) — that's the one thing the tax data tells us directly. Occupancy: Seattle metro 2024 annual was ~70% (STR via Matthews); city-limits figure not separately reported, model uses 68%. ADR: metro-wide blended 2024 was ~$181 (STR), but that average mixes downtown convention hotels with airport, suburban, and extended-stay inventory that is cheaper and may sit outside Seattle city limits — the effective ADR for the Seattle-only lodging tax base is higher, probably $210–$240 annually, but there is no published figure for that exact geography. At 70% occ and $220 ADR the implied room count is ~24,000; at 68% and $235 it's ~23,000 — the two inputs are compensating estimates that bracket the same observed tax total. Downtown core rooms close to SCC ≈ 17,000 (SCC, 2026). Lodging tax = Seattle 7% (from sliders) + KC extended 2.8% (proportional to Seattle at 2024 ratio: $6.4M / $93.5M ≈ 6.84%). The audited operating loss of −$69.4M includes $52.9M non-cash depreciation and is shown in the income statement table below. All figures from WSCC PFD 2024 audited statements; 2025 figures expected May 2026.
The annual report shows a $16 million operating loss for 2024. The audited financial statements — which include $53 million in annual depreciation that the annual report omits — show a $69 million loss. The $16M is the management accounting view — what it costs to operate the building. The $69M is the financial accounting view — it includes the $53M per year the Summit building loses in value. Bond covenants, credit ratings, and any restructuring analysis are written against the audited figure. For the City, that's the number that counts.
| Line item | Amount | % of revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ||
| Food & beverage (Aramark) | $38.3M | 65% |
| Building / facility rental | $7.3M | 12% |
| Facility services (AV, electrical, tech) | $6.0M | 10% |
| Parking (3 garages, 2,150 stalls) | $4.1M | 7% |
| Retail leases & other | $3.0M | 5% |
| Total revenue | $58.6M | 100% |
| Expenses | ||
| Food service cost (Aramark) | $22.1M | |
| Salaries & wages | $15.0M | |
| Employee benefits | $8.1M | |
| Services, utilities & maintenance | $16.4M | |
| Visit Seattle & marketing | $12.3M | |
| Other administrative | $1.1M | |
| Subtotal — cash operations | $75.0M | |
| Depreciation & amortization (Summit + Arch) | $52.9M | |
| Total expenses | $128.0M | |
| Operating loss (audited) | −$69.4M | |
| Operating loss (annual report) | −$16.4M | excl. depreciation |
Source: WSCC PFD Audited Financial Statements, FY 2024 · Statement of Revenues, Expenses, and Changes in Net Position, p.15.
The convention center earns $58.6M from operations but spends $75M running the buildings — a $16.4M cash shortfall. Lodging tax ($99.9M) covers the bondholders first ($89.9M), then plugs $10M of the gap. A federal BABs subsidy ($5M) covers most of the rest. Net result: roughly break-even, with ~$1.4M drawn from reserves.
Flows sized proportionally. Left: revenue sources. Right: where money goes. Lodging tax ($99.9M) is non-operating revenue that services the $1.9B in bonds. Source: WSCC PFD Audited Financial Statements, FY 2024.
The $200M+ in reserves that existed before the Summit opened was a construction fund — money raised in advance to build the Summit building. Between 2022 and 2024, that fund was spent: the Summit came in $300M over its original $1.6B budget. The reserve drawdown was a one-time event. It is done.
What remains is roughly $22–25M in liquid reserves — an operating reserve ($16.3M per the Dec 2024 balance sheet) plus a debt service reserve ($6.1M). CEO Jennifer LeMaster confirmed "about $25 million" in February 2026.
① CEO LeMaster, Feb 2026. ② Summit construction overrun ($300M over budget); draw closed out 2024. ③ Balance sheet: operating reserve $16.3M + debt service reserve $6.1M; CEO confirmed ~$25M. ④ Estimated: ongoing cash burn is near-zero at 2024 lodging tax levels (see below). 2025 actuals expected May 2026.
The accounting loss of −$38.5M/year is real on paper — but $52.9M of it is non-cash depreciation on the Summit building. Strip that out and the 2024 cash picture is nearly neutral:
| 2024 cash flows | Amount |
|---|---|
| Lodging tax received | +$99.9M |
| Debt service — interest paid | −$75.1M |
| Debt service — principal paid | −$14.8M |
| Build America Bonds subsidy received | +$5.0M |
| Cash operating shortfall (revenue $58.6M minus cash costs $75.0M) | −$16.4M |
| Net cash position | ≈ −$1M |
At 2024 lodging tax levels, the organization is nearly cash-neutral. The remaining reserves are not being drained by ongoing operations — they're stable at about $25M.
CEO Jennifer LeMaster, February 2026: "From their high of more than $200 million, the reserves today sit at about $25 million." The same interview: "I'm not going around saying the sky is falling, but I want people to be aware that we're in a fragile position."
The fragility is real. But it isn't that reserves are draining. It's that the $25M cushion is thin — and the lodging tax stream that keeps everything balanced is more exposed than it looks.
The PFD's bonds are not secured by the convention center buildings. They are secured by a lodging tax stream: 7% on hotel rooms inside Seattle city limits, 2.8% on hotel rooms in the rest of King County. In 2024, Seattle's 7% stream produced $93.5M; the county extended rate added $6.4M; total $99.9M.
That $99.9M covers debt service ($89.9M gross) with roughly a $10M buffer. The buffer is thin. And it depends entirely on Seattle hotel rooms being the ones that fill up — not Bellevue's.
Bellevue is building a hotel market. The Crosslake mixed-use district, new hotel construction along the eastside light rail corridor, and Bellevue's growing convention capacity create an alternative that barely existed before the Summit opened. A convention that books the SCC but houses attendees in Bellevue hotels pays 2.8% to the King County extended fund — not 7% to Seattle. The rate differential matters at scale.
| Seattle room night migration to Bellevue | Seattle lodging tax | Debt service buffer |
|---|---|---|
| 0% — 2024 baseline | $93.5M | +$9.6M |
| 5% migration | ~$88.8M | +$4.9M |
| 10% migration | ~$84.2M | ~$0 (at limit) |
| 15% migration | ~$79.5M | −$5.4M shortfall |
Assumes $93.5M Seattle base (2024 actual). Migration scenarios reduce Seattle tax at 7% rate; partial offset from KC extended (2.8%). Debt service $89.9M gross. A shortfall triggers the state backstop until 2029 — after which there is no automatic rescue.
What accelerates migration? Convention site selection factors in the experience outside the building, not just inside it. The Pike-Pine corridor — the blocks between the convention center and Capitol Hill, and between the center and downtown hotels — is the lived environment for attendees. If that corridor is perceived as unsafe, dead, or unwelcoming, conventions notice. Bellevue offers a controlled, walkable hotel environment with newer inventory.
A slow drift of hotel room nights eastward doesn't show up in convention booking counts. The SCC could report record events while its lodging tax base quietly erodes — because the attendees are staying across the lake.
The Summit construction came in $300 million over its original budget. The bonds are not secured by the buildings — they are secured by the lodging tax stream: 7% on hotel rooms in Seattle, 2.8% in the rest of King County. This distinction matters: the Arch can change hands or operators without triggering bondholder claims.
The backstop: Washington State law includes a provision treating any shortfall in debt service as a loan from the state. That backstop is part of the credit structure — it's one reason these bonds carry investment-grade ratings. It expires in 2029.
Why 2029 is not just a future problem: Rating agencies don't wait for default — they reprice the moment the guarantee is gone. When the backstop expires, Moody's and S&P reassess the credit without the state guarantee in the structure. A downgrade raises borrowing costs immediately, strains the operating budget, and accelerates reserve drawdown. The deterioration becomes self-reinforcing: weaker credit → higher costs → faster burn → weaker credit.
The governor's actual incentive: The state's interest is not to bail out the convention center — it's to avoid a legislative fight over backstopping a facility the market is visibly abandoning. But a default creates something worse than a local problem: reputational damage to Washington public finance broadly. Every PFD, every stadium district, every public facilities bond in the state gets repriced. The governor's incentive is to restructure before 2029 so the backstop expiration is a non-event, not a crisis.
What the Commons restructuring does: The Arch off the PFD's operating books removes roughly $30M in annual costs and injects ~$150M in sale proceeds into reserves. The lodging tax stream — the bonds' actual collateral — is unchanged. The credit stabilizes before the backstop expires. That's the clean path: not a bailout, not a default, a restructuring that makes the 2029 expiration irrelevant.
For a year-by-year look at where the status quo leads — including why 2027, not 2029, is the actual hinge — see What-If: Status Quo →
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Total bonds outstanding | $1.9B |
| Estimated annual interest | ~$75M |
| Lodging tax rate (Seattle) | 7.0% |
| Lodging tax rate (rest of KC) | 2.8% |
| State backstop expiration | 2029 |
| Original Summit budget | $1.6B |
| Final Summit cost | $1.9B (+$300M) |
Annual debt service runs ~$85M through 2029 (net of BABs subsidy). After 2029, the audit groups payments into 5-year buckets — the bars show bucket averages. Interest (red) dominates early; principal (blue) grows as term bonds mature. The dashed line tracks the $1.83B balance declining toward zero by 2058.
Source: WSCC PFD Audited Financial Statements, FY 2024, Note 6, p.29 — scheduled debt service requirements. 2025–2029 are individual years from the audit. Bars after 2029 show 5-year bucket averages (the audit groups those periods). Includes all series: 2010B BABs, 2018 & 2021 bonds, KC CPS Note, State Deficiency Notes, Green Notes. BABs federal interest subsidy (~$4–5M/yr through 2040) netted from interest.
The $38 million in food service revenue is the SCC's biggest income source — bigger than building rent, bigger than parking. The convention center makes more money selling boxed lunches to captive attendees than it does renting the halls they're standing in.
This creates a structural conflict. The SCC has no financial incentive to make it easy for attendees to eat off-campus. The exclusive contractor model is the business model. When the Aramark contract expires January 2, 2027, the board faces a direct choice: renew and stay in the captive-catering business, or restructure and open the building to a food hall model that serves the neighborhood instead of extracting from it.
That contract expiration is the hinge on which the Commons proposal turns. See The Operational Plan for the full contract analysis.
In 2019 — the last full year before COVID, operating as a single building — the Arch generated $37 million in revenue against $37 million in expenses: $74,000 in operating income. Breakeven. The building was self-sustaining.
The Summit opened in 2023. Revenue across both buildings increased 58 percent. Audited expenses increased 246 percent — from $37M to $128M. The organization was built to run one building and suddenly had two — twice the maintenance, twice the debt service — without twice the conventions to justify it.
The two-building model is losing $69 million a year on an audited basis. The one-building model broke even. The math points to the same conclusion the proposal reaches: one convention center, one public commons, operated separately.
| Year | Revenue | Expenses | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 (Arch only) | $37M | $37M | +$74K |
| 2024 (both buildings) | $58.6M | $128.0M | −$69.4M |
| Change | +58% | +246% |